Reports about the uptrend of negative voting intentions in the coming October referendum on whether an amendment should be made to the Australian Constitution to recognise First Nation’s people and give them a voice to parliament as an advisory body on matters that directly affect them concern me. I would like to know who is doing the polling and how they are going about it. Indigenous Voice Referendum Polling: Who is doing the polling? Newspoll is one polling company frequently reported as undertaking polling on the referendum. Newspoll was part owned by News Corp – that Murdoch company which publishes The Australian and most other capital city newspapers. Rupert Murdoch is a virulent right wing figure and his newspapers and networks follow his party line. Recently Fox News was fined a billion dollars for knowingly telling lies about the 2020 US election.
The Voice Polling?
Newspoll has shifted to online polling exclusively and so their lists of email addresses are very important when considering the true breadth of their reach in polling. If these are associated with News Corp subscribers/readers/advertisers then their results would greatly favour the No Vote.
To read the Murdoch newspapers or watch Sky News Australia would make one a rusted on conservative/climate change denier. Personally, I would take Newspoll’s results with a liberal grain of salt.
“Newspoll is an Australian opinion polling brand, published by The Australian and administered by international market research and data analytics group, YouGov. Newspoll has a long tradition of predicting Australian Federal Election results, both federal and state. Until May 2015, Newspoll was a market research and polling company, part owned by News Corp Australia. In May 2015 administration of Newspoll was transferred to Galaxy Research. In December 2017, Galaxy Research was acquired by YouGov. Newspoll’s surveys of voting intention are published exclusively in The Australian. As founding members of the Australian Polling Council, YouGov adheres to its standards of transparency and ethical behaviour. This includes publishing methodology statements which can be found here au.yougov.com/news/2021/05/18/apc/ Newspoll was established in 1985 as a joint venture between News Limited and Yann Campbell Hoare Wheeler, which later was purchased by Millward Brown during the 1990s leading to the current ownership structure. In 2015 this company was wound up with The Australian announcing that henceforth Newspoll would become a polling brand administered by Galaxy. The transfer of operation to Galaxy came with a significant change in polling methods, from live telephone interviews to a mix of online and automated telephone interviews. However, the wording of Newspoll questions remained the same. In the first major test of this methodology, Newspoll conducted by Galaxy Research was the most accurate national published poll at the 2016 Australian Federal Election. A further change occurred in November 2019, with YouGov switching to entirely online polling.”
The media in Australia is largely controlled by conservative corporate interests, with the exception of the ABC. News Corp and Nine Fairfax control all the major newspapers, radio news networks and TV networks. The ABC has been under a decade or two of sustained attack by conservative forces accusing it of bias and slashing its budget when in government. Meanwhile, the right wing vitriol on Sky News Australia continues without comment or scrutiny.
Journalism has morphed into PR and the Communications business has thrived over the last 20 years. This corporatises everything even more and contributes to the largely conservative media we have in Australia. It is all about the money, always.
Who Is Doing The Voice Polling?
Who else is doing the polling? Resolve, Essential, SEC Newgate, and Redbridge. Resolve was founded by Jim Reed, who made his chops polling at the SMH and The Age.
“Jim is a member of the Australian Market & Social Research Society (AMSRS) and has Qualified Professional Researcher (QPR) status.”
Essential polling is co-owned by Peter Lewis and Peter Stahel.
https://essentialreport.com.au/#latest-reports
SEC Newgate are part of a communications company. Brian Tyson is the top dog.
Redbridge is Kos Samaras and he has an ALP background.
“Support for the Voice is particularly weak with older voters without a university education.”
“A Voice poll hasn’t been conducted since the mid-August Resolve poll that gave “no” a 54–46 lead. But all recent polls have trended to “no”, with the most friendly pollster for “yes” (Essential) showing “no” ahead by 47–43 in their early August poll.”
“This presents another difficulty in tracking the likelihood of success of the voice via polling, as few national polls so far have surveyed enough people to get a decently sized sample of voters from all of the six states, with South Australia, Western Australia and Tasmania in particular having low numbers.”
Polling Takeaways
Younger Australians are much more supportive of The Voice than older members of the nation. Perhaps, they understand that empowering First Nations people will enable them to take greater responsibility for their own lives and futures.
It seem that older Australians are more comfortable with the centuries of dispossession and failure. Conservative folk like to believe that individuals can beat the odds and rise up the ladder under their own steam. This is despite the fact that they personally have no experience with being anything other than white and often privileged. Older Aussies who did not go to university like to demean it as a waste of tax payer’s money but it is only at institutions like these that you get taught about other people’s perspectives. The school of hard knocks (their real world) has a tight focus on making enough money to feed yourself and family.
Thus, the majority of older Aussies cannot see the world through anything but their own lens. “If it was good enough for me….”
Downward Envy & The Voice
Downward envy is another favourite Aussie inclination, it seems. The current cost of living crisis has given Australian voters a reason to indulge in their favourite ‘what about me?’ pastime. The coming referendum is not about the white majority of voters and it is not going to cost them a great deal more than is already spent on Indigenous matters and closing the gap, whatever the outcome. However, saying No to something warms the meanest of hearts, it seems. Why should they get special treatment? What about me and my temporary tough time? These refrains are hot on the lips of those without the education or wherewithal to look deeper into an age old situation. Meanwhile, Peter Dutton and the Coalition play politics as per usual, as they did re-climate change and the refugees coming by boat. They want to win points against Albanese and the ALP. They don’t care about Aborigines.
Dutton is happy to maintain the status quo with whites well on top and the blacks in the back blocks. If you don’t know, vote No. What kind of message is that? Conservatives are happy to have ignorance flourishing among their supporters – it makes it easier to rip them off.
Personally, I am voting yes. I am voting for change. I am voting for something which will take shape over time. A yes opens the door!
Robert Sudha Hamilton is the author of Money Matters: Navigating Credit, Debt, and Financial Freedom.
©HouseTherapy